General David Petraeus Interview: Afghanistan Part

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,581088-2,00.html

SPIEGEL: Hardly anyone disputes that there has been great progress in Iraq. On the contrary, you have been credited with a huge success. And now they want you to repeat this success in Afghanistan?
Petraeus: (laughs) I was hoping to run this interview out before we got to that question ...
SPIEGEL: Do you think it is possible that you could also get that far in Afghanistan?
Petraeus: First, let me say that this has never been about one person. Progress in Iraq has always been about teams of people and teams of teams -- and ultimately about young men and women, Iraqi as well as people from the coalition. There are some ideas that will translate from Iraq to Afghanistan and there are many that will not. The first lesson of counterinsurgency, in fact, is that every situation is truly unique, has its own context, its own specific set of factors -- and you have to understand that context in enormous detail to be able to craft a sound and comprehensive approach. In Iraq 18 months ago, I often envied the commander in Afghanistan, truly. Now, Iraq has gone from being on the brink to being on the mend, and it clearly has some big advantages. It has enormous oil reserves, it has virtually untapped natural gas resources. It also has water, many Iraqis are well-educated and it has considerable infrastructure.
SPIEGEL: Afghanistan is the opposite in many ways.
Petraeus: In many respects you're right. In Afghanistan you are not rebuilding, you are building. There is very limited infrastructure and extreme terrain, with deserts in the south and mountains so high in some areas that helicopters don't even fly well at a certain altitude because the air becomes so thin. The country has a serious problem of illiteracy, especially after so many years of war and Taliban rule. It has other enormous challenges as well, including a political system that is still very much developing, although there has been some progress in the past several years. There is also a growing insurgency threat from al-Qaida, the Taliban and other extremist elements, some of which comes from the tribal areas of Pakistan, as well as from the Northwest Frontier province and Baluchistan. The ISAF commander, General David McKiernan, calls it a syndicate. Given the cross-border threats, you have to approach the situation as a region, not as one country or the other.
SPIEGEL: How long will it take to win this fight, according to your cold realism?
Petraeus: I did a week-long assessment in 2005 at (then Defense Secretary Donald) Rumsfeld's request. Following our return, I told him that Afghanistan was going to be the longest campaign of what we then termed "the long war." Having just been to Afghanistan a month or so ago, I think that that remains a valid assessment. Moreover, the trends have clearly been in the wrong direction.
SPIEGEL: What do you expect from the NATO allies?
Petraeus: It is not up to the US Central Command to expect something, it is up to the NATO command. Secretary Gates suggested the other day that the allies can contribute in many ways, not just in the provision of significantly larger numbers on the ground. They can provide additional financial and equipment support for the Afghan National Army, for example, or for reconstruction and capacity building efforts.
SPIEGEL: As long as there aren't enough troops available on the ground, you have to stick with air raids, which again and again results in the loss of civilian lives.
Petraeus: There is very careful examination of that ongoing. The employment of close air support has recently been reviewed by General McKiernan. And he has put out instructions with considerable clarity about the employment of air support in a manner that strives very hard to avoid civilian casualties...
SPIEGEL: Former ISAF commander Dan McNeill, who led the troops until this summer, has said that under the current doctrine, 400,000 troops would be needed on the ground to bring peace to the country.
Petraeus: The question is always how you get the number of troops needed. They do not have to be coalition forces. We also have to expand the training program for the Afghan National Army and the national police, in particular. and Defense Secretary Robert Gates has already announced support for a significant increase in the Afghan army. Meanwhile, there will also be additional help provided to the local police, as they are the most vulnerable personally, especially when one thinks of their families.