General David Petraeus Interview: Iraq Part
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,581088,00.html
Gen. Petraeus sat down for an interview shortly after no longer being the head commander in Iraq.
SPIEGEL: ...You will be in charge of such difficult countries as Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Egypt, Lebanon ...
Petraeus: ... Yes, and don't forget Yemen, where there are also extremist elements, as we saw recently.
SPIEGEL: Saudi Arabia is on the list, too.
Petraeus: The situation there has improved tremendously. Over the last four years they have done a superb job in their fight against al-Qaida. ...Since then, the Saudis have employed a very intelligent and comprehensive approach to counter al-Qaida, including precise operations based on good intelligence, changes in their corrections facilities, superb strategic communications programs and a host of other initiatives -- all of which, together, have helped Saudi Arabia achieve impressive results in their fight against extremists.
SPIEGEL: ...the rest of the world was stunned by the progress in Iraq, you almost sounded like the greatest skeptic.
Petraeus: There has, indeed, been very substantial progress in Iraq over the past year -- violence is down by 80 percent, civilian deaths by about the same, and so on. ...As you know, according to the constitution, the Presidency Council has to approve all legislation that is passed by the Council of Representatives. This means that the Kurdish president and his Sunni and Shia vice-presidents all have to approve legislation; this means, of course, that each of them thus has a veto. Thus, without a reasonable degree of consensus there are clear limits on what it is that can be done.
SPIEGEL: But how stable has Iraq become as a country?
Petraeus: ...The appropriate assessment is therefore one that reflects a degree of caution when it comes to Iraq.
SPIEGEL: Do you still see the threat of a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites?
Petraeus: I think that is much less likely and this a remarkable fact. The level of sectarian violence was horrific in the winter of 2006-2007. There were, for example, over 50 dead bodies every 24 hours in Baghdad alone in December 2006 just from sectarian violence.
SPIEGEL: One of the great miracles in all this is the behavior of Moqtada al-Sadr, who for some time now has kept his Mahdi Army quiet.
Petraeus: It was not a miracle at all. It is very easily explained. The Sadr movement’s reputation was tarnished badly by the actions of the militia that bear the Sadr name. ...Elements of the militia were extorting money from shopkeepers, they were kidnapping for ransom, they were linked to the killing of two southern governors and three police chiefs and they caused reprehensible violence in the whole city of Karbala in August 2007. Al-Sadr realized that his movement was on the verge of the worst possible situation -- popular rejection -- and he declared a cease-fire. ...Al-Sadr really had no logical alternative.
SPIEGEL: And the Sunnis, on the other hand, were bribed into cooperation, as Bob Woodward writes in his new book "The War Within"?
Petraeus: That's not completely accurate. I will tell you what we have done. The Sunni Arabs began to realize that they had made a huge mistake by not voting in the election of 2005 and by not being part of the new Iraq. They had reasons for this: They were effected by the disestablishment of the military and by de-Baathification (the dismantling of Saddam Hussein's party) in winter 2007-2007. They increasingly recognized that their future lay in being part of the solution rather than a continuing part of the problem. But they couldn't reject al-Qaida without our provision of security. So we took care of their security, we moved into their neighborhoods, we protected their tribal leaders who led the rejection of al-Qaida. And then we cleared many of their towns and cities and rural areas of al-Qaida Iraq and other insurgents, sometimes with their help, but often without it. And once their areas were clear, many of them sought to help us keep them secure -- and, over time, we began hiring them to man checkpoints and help keep their areas clear. You know, we had money for emergency reconstruction programs, and this seemed a wise investment -- as reconstruction is not possible without security -- and they helped to maintain it.
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3 comments:
fascinating article..ill have a number of commentary about it.
"SPIEGEL: Saudi Arabia is on the list, too.
Petraeus: The situation there has improved tremendously. Over the last four years they have done a superb job in their fight against al-Qaida. ...Since then, the Saudis have employed a very intelligent and comprehensive approach to counter al-Qaida, including precise operations based on good intelligence, changes in their corrections facilities, superb strategic communications programs and a host of other initiatives -- all of which, together, have helped Saudi Arabia achieve impressive results in their fight against extremists."
these comments come on the heels of CIA Director Gen Michael Hayden who made very similar comments in mid June about the success of the Saudi royal family in finally putting the hammer down on Al Qaeda terrorists operating in Saudi Arabaia. This is especially critical considering 14 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudis and elements of the Royal family were funding and abetting these terrorists. But lets not confuse things here..more must be done in terms of human rights in Saudi Arabia, serious democratic reforms, and getting these radical mullahs in Riyadh under control.
"SPIEGEL: Do you still see the threat of a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites?
Petraeus: I think that is much less likely and this a remarkable fact. The level of sectarian violence was horrific in the winter of 2006-2007. There were, for example, over 50 dead bodies every 24 hours in Baghdad alone in December 2006 just from sectarian violence."
i cant stress that first comment by Gen Petraeus "I think that is MUCH LESS LIKELY(a full bore Iraqi civil war) and this is a REMARKABLE RACT" That is without question 1 of the biggest achievements of the surge and it completely exposes the myth expoused by the Dems about "policing a civil war". well as it turns out more troops led to greater cooperation led to significant political reconciliation. not only the passage of that provincial election law but also Iraqi forces have now been in control of Anbar province for about a month. there's been no reported violence. no reported tensions between the Sunni awakening and Iraqi forces in fact according to the London Times and other reports there is more unity between the Iraqi govt and Sunni tribes in Anbar. And all the major Sunni parties have said they will participate fully in January's elections. This is one again another critical reason why John McCain needs to be elected President, so these fantasic going ons are not reversed because of a naive push by the most liberal Presidential candidate ever Barack Obama to as Joe Biden put it last Thursday "we will end this war"
"SPIEGEL: One of the great miracles in all this is the behavior of Moqtada al-Sadr, who for some time now has kept his Mahdi Army quiet.
Petraeus: It was not a miracle at all. It is very easily explained. The Sadr movement’s reputation was tarnished badly by the actions of the militia that bear the Sadr name. ...Elements of the militia were extorting money from shopkeepers, they were kidnapping for ransom, they were linked to the killing of two southern governors and three police chiefs and they caused reprehensible violence in the whole city of Karbala in August 2007. Al-Sadr realized that his movement was on the verge of the worst possible situation -- popular rejection -- and he declared a cease-fire. ...Al-Sadr really had no logical alternative."
This explains why there was little resistence when US and Iraqi forces went into Basra and Sadr City during the spring. because the people of those areas were fed up with Sadr and the Mehdi Army and let the US and Maliki's troops come in unopposed and the Mehdi army was routed. And so it wasnt as you had mentioned in April about how the Iranians brokered that supposed ceasefire. in fact, in turns out i was right all along. that Sadr's militia was facing a popular revolt, his forces were getting destroyed by US and Iraqi forces and so Sadr called for the ceasefire to save himself politically from abject humiliation and ruin.
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