Some Afghanistan Ponderings

What will victory in Afghanistan look like? Will it look like the Afghanistan that has been true since what seems like the beginning of time or will it look like an Afghanistan with less opium production and less corruption but far from being "clean" or corrupt? What is our end game?

Al-Qaeda is no longer in Afghanistan (in terms of bases) and they'll never care what country they reside in -the country they reside in has never mattered. They've resided in Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Egypt, and Afghanistan plus Pakistan over the years.

What is a realistic end game in a country that almost every one claims has a population that is less than 20% educated? A country that couldn't be pacified with 350,000 Russian troops? Is it ever possible to win in the rural areas of Afghanistan? Do we set up a split situation of controlling and running the urban and more populated cities while ignoring the rural areas and farms?

When the British and our Sec. of Def. plus our top General are saying that a military victory isn't to be had in Afghanistan and we have to talk to the Taliban do people understand that their is a difference between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda? That AQ and the Taliban have had a very fractious relationship over the years with one part of the Taliban not always agreeing with or working with another part of the Taliban? Do people understand that the Taliban is serious when they say that they won’t talk until we’re gone? If that reality sets in, how does the Obama administration and General Petreus deal with that? Would the United States accept pulling out of Afghanistan and essentially not winning but not losing on the condition that they’re given Osama Bin Laden? Then what happens when it becomes apparent that Al-Qaeda will go on with or without Osama Bid Laden? That he neither started AQ nor came up with the beliefs they fight for. That the Taliban see’s Bin Laden as an irrelevant person other than he is helping them fight foreigners on there soil?

How will President-Elect Obama and General Petreus deploy US troops in Afghanistan with Europe almost at the breaking point for how many they can send -especially with EU recently sending in naval operations to combat piracy in Somalia? The ISAF has 50,000 troops in Afghanistan, European countries being over half of them.

Since the beginning of 2007, the E.U. has had 15 'battlegroups', each with at least 1,500 soldiers, dealing with local crises around the globe. France not only has troops in Afghanistan but also Chad, Kosovo, Congo and Lebanon. According to a high level NATO diplomat the European governments “…have real resource problems.” Pretty easy to imagine given this current economic mess the world is in.

Will Mr. Obama and Mr. Petreus be willing to have all US troops in the front lines, almost solely handling the southern part of Afghanistan if it means that the ISAF will increase the numbers they have working on infrastructure, fighting government corruption, and border security? Will they do this knowing that any form of victory to come in Afghanistan can only be had by fixing all three of these things?